Country Report Georgia March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: External sector

The current-account deficit is estimated to have widened to 10.6% of GDP in 2010 from 11.7% in 2009. As in 2010, over the forecast period the widening of the trade deficit will partly be offset by an increase in the current transfers and services surpluses. Barring another military conflict, services credits over the forecast period will benefit from an increase in hydrocarbons transiting Georgia. The current-account deficit will therefore remain broadly stable in nominal US dollar terms, although as the economic outlook for the economy improves in 2012, this will result in a shrinking of the current-account deficit to 8.3% of GDP. In the first half of 2010 net FDI totalled US$270.9m, substantially below the US$1.1bn recorded in the first half of 2008. The outlook for net FDI will remain weak in 2011 as investors remain risk averse. However, as global economic prospects and constraints on credit ease in 2012, net FDI inflows will pick up.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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