The next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2012, and the presidential election for the start of 2013. The constitution prevents Mr Saakashvili from standing for a third term in the election in 2013. Currently, the most likely candidate from the ruling UNM is Gigi Ugulava, the mayor of the capital, Tbilisi, who won the mayoral election in May 2010 with just over 55% of the vote. Although not our main scenario, there is a possibility that Mr Alasania, from the more moderate wing of the extra-parliamentary opposition, could win the presidential election. However, support for his party is weak outside urban areas. Mr Alasania was Mr Ugulava's nearest rival in the mayoral election, receiving 19.1% of the vote.

The UNM will remain the largest party in parliament following the parliamentary election in 2012. Changes to the constitution in October 2010 will significantly reduce the powers of the president. The opposition has speculated that the decision to increase the powers of parliament was designed to allow Mr Saakashvili to retain a controlling influence over the political scene by assuming the post of prime minister once his term as president comes to an end. The opposition's ability to increase its share of seats in parliament will depend on its capability to reduce divisions among the main groups within the opposition and to propose a political programme that appeals more broadly to the concerns of Georgian voters-an approach that it has struggled to pursue in the past. There is a risk of protests in the run-up to, and the aftermath of, both elections. However, as the political scene is more stable than at any point in recent years, the risk that either election is brought forward has lessened.