The president, Mikheil Saakashvili, will remain in power in 2011-12. Threats to his leadership have continued to ease after opposition protests, which began in April 2009 and were aimed at forcing the president's resignation, petered out in July of that year. Entrenched divisions among the various opposition groups resurfaced over tactics, and over whether to negotiate with the authorities, sapping momentum from the protests. Since then, the domestic political situation has gradually improved, and it has remained more stable than at any point since before the large anti-government demonstrations in 2007.

Mr Saakashvili and his party, the United National Movement (UNM), will benefit from the wide divisions in the opposition camp. Although protests organised by the opposition continue to be held in Georgia on a sporadic basis, they do not pose a threat to political stability at the moment, as the opposition remains weak and divided, and unable to present a credible alternative to the leadership of Mr Saakashvili and the UNM. The poor turnout for protests in recent months indicates that the electorate have tired of the disruptions brought by street protests, and want the political elite to focus on policymaking and implementation.

Mr Saakashvili will continue to attempt to co-opt the opposition by offering some a greater say in political decisions. Parts of the opposition, particularly the National Council bloc (comprising the Conservative Party, the People's Party and the Movement for Fair Georgia), will resist the president's overtures, and will sustain demands for his resignation. Our Georgia-Free Democrats-led by Irakli Alasania, a former envoy to the UN-will continue to pursue a more conciliatory approach, possibly working with the authorities on issues such as electoral and judicial reform. Although some high-profile figures formed a new party, the Georgian Party, in October 2010, the longevity of the group is questionable, as there is a considerable divergence of political views. Mr Saakashvili will seek to exploit the divisions among the opposition, hoping to weaken their campaign against the presidential administration.