Country Report Indonesia June 2011

Economic policy: The government is optimistic about economic prospects

The Ministry of Finance submitted its basic economic assumptions for 2012 to the DPR in late May. The assumptions, which are used as the basis for the budget, paint an optimistic picture of accelerating growth, low inflation and a moderately weaker exchange rate. Real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 6.5-6.9% in 2012, compared with forecast growth of 6.5% in 2011. The faster rate of growth will be achieved by encouraging the development of Indonesia's outlying regions, and particularly the provinces of Papua and West Papua, as well as through investment in infrastructure to support inter-regional connectivity, according to Mr Martowardojo. Inflation is forecast to fall to within the range of 3.5-5.5% next year, compared with a forecast average rate of 5.3% in 2011, although containing inflationary pressures in a rapidly growing economy is likely to be challenging for Indonesia's monetary authorities. The finance ministry also expects the rupiah to fall back from the highs that it has reached this year, with an average exchange rate of Rp9,000-9,300:US$1 in 2012, compared with the current rate of around Rp8,500:US$1. Oil production is expected to remain steady in the range of 950,000-970,000 barrels/day, with oil prices projected to move in the range of US$75-95/barrel. The budget deficit next year as a proportion of GDP is forecast to widen from this year's target of 1.8%, but the finance ministry has yet to publish a detailed forecast.

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