On an annual average basis consumer price inflation accelerated to 5.1% in 2010, from 4.8% in 2009, and inflationary pressures will rise again this year as economic activity accelerates. A large increase in 2011 in international prices for oil and non-oil commodities, notably grains, will also exert upward pressure on domestic prices. However, average inflation should remain just within BI's 4-6% target range. After accelerating in January to 7% year on year, its fastest pace for 21 months, inflation slowed in each of the following three months, with prices rising by 6.2% in April. The rupiah's continued appreciation against the US dollar, and the start of the main domestic rice harvest in March, should limit inflation in the coming months. Inflation will remain at 6% in 2012, before accelerating to 6.4% on average in 2013-15. The primary risk to our short-term forecast comes from the possibility that high global oil prices could force officials to raise domestic fuel prices to keep the budget deficit under control, especially given that their assumption that oil prices will average US$80/b this year looks unrealistically low. But there is little sign that the government will find raising fuel prices politically palatable; it has repeatedly postponed plans to end the sale of subsidised fuel to owners of private cars on Java.