Indonesia was affected less severely by the 2008-09 global financial crisis than many neighbouring economies, largely because exports account for a relatively small proportion of its GDP. Economic growth accelerated in 2010, with real GDP expanding by 6.1%. Growth slowed to 6.5% in the first quarter of 2011, from 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010, and in the year as a whole the economy is forecast to grow by 6.1%. Growth will then average 6.3% a year in 2012-15. Private consumption will remain a major engine of GDP growth in 2011-15, expanding by an average of 5.3% a year as the unemployment rate falls and real wages grow steadily. Fixed investment will expand by 8.6% a year on average, supported by strengthening demand. Exports of goods and services grew at double-digit rates in 2010, largely owing to healthy Chinese demand for Indonesia's commodities, but growth in overseas sales will slow in 2011, in line with a weaker global economy. Exports will expand at an average annual rate of 10.6% in 2011-15. Owing to healthy import demand, the external sector will make only a modest contribution to GDP growth in the forecast period.

There are still a number of downside risks to our forecast. The most serious is that fiscal-austerity programmes in Western economies might lead to a rapid slowdown in global economic growth. In addition, the loose monetary policy stance adopted by Western central banks has led to strong flows of capital into Asian countries, creating concerns that asset price bubbles could develop there. The bursting of bubbles can trigger a deleveraging process that hurts a country's real economy. Indonesia was a recipient of strong flows of foreign finance in 2010, and it will continue to attract substantial inflows in 2011. As a result, local asset prices are likely to rise. However, Indonesian companies and households are not highly leveraged, and a period of strong lending growth could benefit the economy, particularly if funds are invested in productive areas, such as improvements to infrastructure.

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