Country Report Taiwan May 2011

Economic performance: The economy may have grown by 6.2% in the first quarter

Early estimates suggest that Taiwan's real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 reached a robust 6.2% year on year, a higher than expected figure. Several economic indicators suggest that the country's economy still has momentum. Consumer confidence rose in April, according to an index produced by the National Central University, with improvements to five of the categories in the index and a decline in one. Confidence in equities over the next six months rose furthest, followed by confidence in the job market, reflecting the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in March, from 4.7% in February. The local job market has been improving steadily since unemployment hit 6.1% in August 2009. The only category to experience a decline in the consumer confidence survey was the likelihood of consumers purchasing durable goods, which appears to be linked to the forthcoming luxury tax.

Having unexpectedly slowed to 5.3% year on year in February, export orders returned to growth in March, surging by 13.4%. There was a slight decline in orders from Japan, although this was in line with falls in late 2010 because of the weakening economy there, rather than as a result of the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan in March, the impact of which may not be felt in Taiwan's merchandise trade figures until next month. The overall value of Taiwan's exports (on a customs basis) amounted to US$27.3bn in April, while imports totalled US$24.4bn, a year-on-year increase of around 25% for both, bringing about a trade surplus of US$3bn. Exports of chemicals and basic metals rose most rapidly as manufacturers responded to increasing demand for Chinese-manufactured high-technology goods, although electronic products continued to account for the lion's share (27%) of Taiwan's exports. Shipments to the US increased by the largest amount (at almost 40% year on year), as the economy there has picked up, followed by a rise of 38% in the six main economies of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), while exports to China (by far the largest export market, accounting for more than 40% of the total) grew by a relatively modest 15%.

A World Trade Organisation report released in April placed Taiwan 16th globally in terms of the overall value of its exports in 2010 (which stood at US$274.6bn), and second in terms of export growth, at 35%-a rate of growth second only to Australia's. The island's imports grew by 44%, second only to those of Indonesia.

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