Country Report Taiwan May 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Policy trends

Passing legislation between now and the 2012 election will remain relatively straightforward for the government, as the KMT currently controls both parliament and the presidency. (In 2000-08 the legislature and the executive were controlled by different parties.) Efforts to expand links with China will continue, with the primary aim of negotiating new agreements within the ECFA. The signing of the ECFA will encourage Taiwan to seek further FTAs. In the early years of the forecast period the authorities will withdraw cautiously the emergency stimulus measures that were introduced in late 2008 and 2009. However, they will remain alert to the risk of a renewed global slowdown and will be prepared to take further action to support the economy if necessary. A major challenge for the monetary authorities in Taiwan at present is dealing with the flood of hot money that is entering the country. The introduction of further capital controls of some sort is a possibility, amid fears that inflows of hot money risk causing both asset price bubbles, which have the potential to be destabilising for the economy when they burst, and a rapid rise in the exchange rate, which could undermine the competitiveness of Taiwan's export-led economy.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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