Taiwan's political scene will be increasingly dominated by preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections that are due to take place in 2012. But until the election takes place the political scene should remain relatively stable, as the Kuomintang (KMT) controls the presidency and also has a comfortable majority in the Legislative Yuan (parliament). The KMT's control of both the presidency and the legislature means that the main opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), will be excluded from a major role in politics until at least 2012. The DPP will continue to use the media and street demonstrations to protest against government policies, and in particular the rapprochement with mainland China that is being pursued by Taiwan's president, Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT. However, some senior DPP members are seeking to moderate the party's policy towards China.

Since taking office in early 2008 Mr Ma has moved quickly to finalise several bilateral deals aimed at promoting trade and investment links across the Taiwan Strait, and Taiwan signed a loose bilateral free-trade agreement (FTA) with China, the Economic Co­operation Framework Agreement (ECFA), in June 2010. Although the DPP has criticised the ECFA as constituting a threat to Taiwan's sovereignty, the island's residents have largely rejected this argument and favour the strengthening of economic and transport links with the mainland. However, there is little support for a political settlement with China that would diminish Taiwan's de facto political independence. If the president moves in this direction, he would quickly lose public support. It is therefore unlikely that he will do so before the 2012 presidential election, and his approval ratings will thus continue to fluctuate in line with broad economic indicators, rather than being determined by the issue of links with China.

The DPP is unlikely to attract enough public support to be able to hold mass demonstrations against the KMT's policy of closer ties with China, particularly as cross-Strait rapprochement has reduced the risk of military conflict. Opinion polls suggest that the majority of the population back Mr Ma's argument that an agreement with the mainland is the only means by which Taiwan can avoid becoming economically and politically marginalised on the world stage, and that cross-Strait economic integration had in any case already begun under the previous DPP government. The DPP and its supporters have said that they do not believe that the ECFA will be a panacea for the island's economic problems, as Mr Ma has suggested. Nevertheless, even members of the DPP increasingly accept that economic integration with China is irreversible. In a departure from past practice, the DPP decided not to organise demonstrations during a visit to Taiwan in February by Chen Yunlin, the chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, which implements mainland China's Taiwan policy.