Gulf Co-operation Council deployment demonstrates regional tensions

The deployment of Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) forces to Bahrain appears to be largely a symbolic, political gesture. Bahrain's own security forces are nearly 20,000 strong, and are well equipped, so it is doubtful that they would need reinforcements in order to have enough personnel or equipment. Rather, the involvement of the GCC sends a strong political message that the Al Khalifa are part of a larger grouping of inter-related tribal monarchs and that those that call for revolution are in effect opposing the monarchical systems across the Gulf.

The close relationship between the GCC ruling families was further highlighted by the engagement of the youngest son of King Hamad, Sheikh Khaled bin Hamad al-Khalifa, to Sheikha Sahab bint Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud, a daughter of the Saudi monarch, King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz al-Saud, on March 6th. Another of King Hamad's sons, Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad al-Khalifa, is married to a daughter of the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum. Sheikh Nasser, who heads the General Organisation for Youth and Sport and is the president of the Bahrain Olympic Committee, has been increasingly prominent in recent weeks, first brokering a "youth dialogue" (albeit with few identifiable results) and subsequently being photographed in military uniform meeting Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa, the commander-in-chief of the Bahrain Defence Force, in his role as commander of the Rapid Intervention Force, one of five new military units. In mid-April it was announced that an event would be held under Sheikh Nasser's patronage where young Bahrainis could sign a pledge of allegiance to the country's leadership, culminating in the award of four symbolic "swords of allegiance to the wise leadership", to be presented to the king, the crown prince, Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, the prime minister, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, and a special "youth sword", to Sheikh Nasser himself. It is possible that hardliners within the ruling family view him as a useful counterweight to the crown prince, who has been a notable advocate of political reform in the past.

The king said in March that an "external plot" had been fomented over the past 20 to 30 years but had now failed, in remarks widely understood to be referring to Iran. The foreign minister, Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa, also said that the government had evidence that Bahraini activists had been trained by Hizbullah, an armed Lebanese Shia political group. He noted that Hassan Mushaima, the leader of Haq, a hardline opposition group, had visited Beirut, the Lebanese capital, on his return to Bahrain from self-imposed exile in London. However, the supposed evidence of Hizbullah's involvement in Bahrain's protests does not yet seem to have been shared with the country's Western allies. In mid-April the US defence secretary, Robert Gates, reiterated his earlier comments that the US did not believe that Iran was behind the protests in any Arab country, but expressed concern that Iran was seeking to exploit the unrest, "particularly in Bahrain". These remarks were wrongly reported in some quarters as proof that Iran was interfering. Other Western diplomats also told the Economist Intelligence Unit that they were sceptical about the allegations of Iranian or Hizbullah involvement.

Iran has criticised the crackdown in Bahrain, and been strongly opposed to the GCC troop deployment, but has denied any interference. One Iranian member of parliament called for an Iranian troop deployment to Bahrain. Separately, a website was set up calling for volunteers to sign up to fight in Bahrain. Iranian-owned media channels have stridently denounced the crackdown and have praised the opposition. All of this has only added to the sectarian tensions in Bahrain and has fed long-dormant Sunni anxieties about supposed Shia disloyalty to the state. The tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia over Bahrain are likely to have ramifications elsewhere in the region. Arab News, a Saudi newspaper, reported that firebombs were thrown at the Saudi embassy in Tehran, the Iranian capital, during a demonstration against the deployment of Saudi troops in Bahrain. Meanwhile, Bahrain has suspended flights by its two airlines, Gulf Air and Bahrain Air, to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon and has reportedly deported a number of Lebanese and Iraqi expatriate workers.