Country Report Bahrain April 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: International relations

The US will remain a key international ally, and the US Navy's Fifth Fleet is doubling the area of its onshore facilities in Bahrain. Good relations with European partners like France and the UK are also a priority, although these will be harmed if the government continues its use of repressive tactics to put down internal dissent. The US will be keen to maintain its alliance with Bahrain as the presence of its naval base is used as a deterrent against assertive Iranian foreign policy but will also quietly criticise the government's violent response to protests. The main foreign policy concern will be Iran's nuclear programme. Tensions in the Gulf will rise as major international powers increase pressure on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment. Iran's recent public statements condemning the use of force against protesters in Bahrain, and Bahrain's consequent summoning of the Iranian ambassador, will strain the relationship between the two countries. The government will continue to maintain publicly that it harbours no ill will towards the Islamic Republic, but the credibility of this stance has been further undermined by the release of US diplomatic cables by WikiLeaks, a whistle-blowing website, quoting King Hamad as calling for decisive action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Maintaining good relations with the rest of the GCC will be a priority as Bahrain comes to rely on its regional partners both for security and for economic stability. Saudi Arabia is an important ally, as most of Bahrain's crude oil comes from a Saudi-operated, shared offshore field, and the causeway to Saudi Arabia is Bahrain's only land link. This relationship has become even more integral since the deployment of Saudi troops (part of the Peninsula Shield Force) in Bahrain. Relations with Qatar have been more difficult than those with Saudi Arabia, owing, in part, to disputes over maritime boundaries and, according to the leaked US diplomatic cables, the king's "strong annoyance" over Iranian military personnel visiting Qatar. However, there is little reason to believe that there will be a serious deterioration in diplomatic relations between the two neighbours. In fact, Bahrain stands to benefit in the long run from the tourism effects of Qatar's hosting of the 2022 football World Cup. The construction of a causeway between Qatar and Bahrain is a long-term project and faced some delays last summer, but it could receive a fillip from investment for the World Cup.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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