According to several media reports in mid-December, the government submitted for parliamentary approval a budget for 2011 in which spending totalled a staggering UM500bn (just over US$1bn), up by 69% on the latest spending estimates for 2010 and by 75% on the revised projections for 2011 agreed with the IMF.

However, details of this unprecedented and unexpected shift in the government's spending plans were not available at the time of writing. Moreover, the IMF's resident representative in the country, Tijani Najeh, has stated to the Economist Intelligence Unit that, as far as he is aware, the press reports about a huge increase in spending were incorrect and the government will stick to its consolidation plan. Consequently, in the absence of official confirmation of reports that spending is set to balloon in 2011, we expect the government to stick broadly to the programme agreed with the IMF. Further confusing the budgetary stance, in a mini-cabinet reshuffle on December 15th the president replaced the minister of finance, Ahmed Ould Moulaye, with Amedi Camara, a career civil servant. Mr Camara, who before the cabinet reshuffle was serving as the secretary-general in the Ministry of Industry and Mines, appears to have been chosen for his technocratic credentials.