Overall, the Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that political stability will improve during the forecast period. The government's campaign against a regional Islamist terrorist group, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), is expected to reduce the number of attacks perpetrated by the group. In addition, the positive outlook for economic activity and foreign aid inflows will reduce the potential for popular unrest, as this will have a positive impact on local livelihoods and development spending. Furthermore, the opposition appears to be increasingly willing to negotiate with the regime rather than simply to insist that the election of the president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, in 2009 was illegitimate. Moreover, the ability of the main opposition alliance, Coordination de l'opposition démocratique (COD), to incite potentially destabilising popular anger over this issue is expected to diminish further. The president is set to remain popular, and his rule will increasingly be accepted by his opponents.

The primary threats to the positive outlook stem from AQIM and, to a lesser extent, the military. On the first point, the government will continue to pursue a carrot-and-stick approach to AQIM and militant Islam, on the one hand targeting AQIM militarily, including sending troops into neighbouring Mali, while on the other hand offering amnesties to militants who are willing to renounce jihad and working with moderate religious leaders. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects this strategy to succeed in limiting AQIM's capacity to carry out attacks and to recruit. However, although the number of attacks is expected to diminish, they will not altogether disappear given the difficulty of policing the vast desert areas where AQIM operates. Furthermore, there is considerable opposition among nationalist and mainstream Islamist groups to the involvement of Western intelligence and security services in the government's campaign against terrorists. Invaluable though such foreign support is, it could turn popular opinion against the campaign, particularly if civilians are harmed during such joint operations. The terrorists, aware of this, will continue to portray themselves as national defenders against "infidel" invaders, despite the fact that their own ranks comprise many foreign militants. The president, who is a former general, still commands the respect of the army. However, another coup attempt cannot be ruled out altogether given Mauritania's recent history of military interventions in politics.