The Somaliland government is set to redouble efforts to secure international recognition as a sovereign state in the coming months, in the hope that the imminent independence of Southern Sudan will set a favourable precedent. Somaliland's foreign minister, Mohamed Abdullahi Omar, told journalists on January 18th that he would be citing the situation in Sudan in support of a "more aggressive policy" for international recognition with the African Union (AU) and a regional six-country grouping, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

However, the AU's position on Somalia-that it should remain a single state-is unlikely to change in the light of the referendum in Sudan. This was reflected in comments made by Ethiopia's foreign minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, in an interview on January 15th, in which he said that events in Southern Sudan would not lead Ethiopia to recognise Somaliland because Somaliland's independence is "up to the people of Somalia to decide". The transitional federal government (TFG) based in Mogadishu opposes the secession of Somaliland, which has a population estimated at 3.5m people, over one-third of the national total. Any likely successor to the TFG, whose mandate expires in August 2011, is likely to be similarly reluctant to allow the formal break-up of Somalia.