Country Report Somalia February 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

A new constitution is due to be finalised in the first half of 2011, establishing an electoral system and a federal system of government. The other task that is critical to the successful completion of the transitional period is the holding of national elections, prospects for which are slim given the government's limited areas of control in Mogadishu and central and southern regions. As the TFG's mandate expires in August 2011, another unelected transitional government, comprising representatives of the country's major clans, is likely to assume power until polls can be held. The security situation is too volatile to predict with any confidence when credible elections could be held, but even 2012 looks unlikely at present. Although the draft constitution provides for a federal government, future electoral boundaries have not been set, and the question is likely to prove deeply controversial, not least because of the secessionist ambitions of Somaliland and Puntland. In any event, voting in Somalia will remain firmly along clan lines, and any future federal government will have to include adequate representation of the main clans to ensure political and social stability.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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