Outlook for 2011-12

The security situation is set to remain extremely unstable in 2011-12, as forces supporting the transitional federal government (TFG) will struggle to defeat the well-armed Islamist insurgent groups that currently control most of the country. A likely increase in the number of African Union (AU) troops supporting the TFG to around 12,000 (from the current level of 8,000) may tip the balance of power against the rebels, but will probably not be enough to deal a decisive blow, at least in the outlook period. Further risks to stability stem from deep divisions within the TFG itself, its lack of popular legitimacy and uncertainty over what kind of administration will succeed it when its mandate expires in August 2011. The outlook for continued civil conflict makes the holding of credible national elections by 2012 highly unlikely. Consequently, another transitional administration is likely to be appointed once the TFG's term ends.

The political scene

On January 5th the body charged with drafting the new constitution, the Independent Constitutional Commission (ICC), was doubled in size in order to expedite its work. On October 31st a cabinet of 18 ministers, less than half the size of the previous administration, was appointed amid much acrimony. In December the two main Islamist rebel groups, al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam, merged, and the AU mission to Somalia had its mandate extended. In January the regional authorities of Puntland, a breakaway province, issued a statement declaring that they did not recognise the authority of the TFG.

Economic policy and the domestic economy

The failure of the 2010 secondary deyr rainy season (September-December) in most parts of the country has increased the risk of food insecurity to alarmingly high levels. The government has signed an agreement with a Dubai-based company, SKA Air and Logistics, to run and upgrade Mogadishu's international airport.

The Somaliland Republic

The regional authorities have announced plans to increase diplomatic efforts to secure international recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state. On January 16th the government announced it would double the salaries of all employees in the military and the civil service. The move will be welcomed by public-sector workers, although it falls short of the 300% pay rise promised by the ruling party, Kulmiye, in its election manifesto. Furthermore, the salary increases are expected to boost inflation. A plan to renovate Egal International Airport in Hargeisa and the international airport at Berbera was agreed in December with the government of Kuwait, which will provide US$10m in funding for the projects.