Country Report Cambodia March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Fiscal policy

Despite an improvement in tax collection and plans to impose a new tax on properties valued over CR100m (US$24,000), government revenue will remain low relative to GDP in the forecast period. The government will therefore continue to depend on foreign grants and loans to finance its deficit, which the Economist Intelligence Unit estimates reached 5.7% of GDP in 2010. At a meeting in June the country's donors, known collectively as the Cambodia Development Co-operation Forum, pledged to provide US$1.1bn in assistance in 2010, up from US$951.5m in 2009. However, donor support is set to fall to US$958m in 2011 and US$751m in 2012. The government had hoped that oil production from fields in the Gulf of Thailand would provide new revenue in the form of taxes and royalties, but oil is now not expected to begin flowing until at least 2012. Weak revenue growth, combined with rises in expenditure (especially on defence and wages), will ensure that the budget remains in the red. The government does not issue Treasury bills or other securities, and it would therefore meet any financing shortfall by drawing on its deposits at the NBC, which stood at CR2.1trn (US$500m) in October 2010, down by 30.3% from a high of CR3trn in April 2009.

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