The resumption of donor support in 2009 will remain on course, contingent on political stability, as will the inflow of foreign direct investment. Economic growth is therefore expected to pick up in 2011-12. Non-ferrous metals exploration and investment will be a major driver of growth. Oil exploration will also contribute to economic growth, but the lag between prospecting for viable oilfields and their coming on stream means that overall oil production is expected to continue to decline in 2011. Agricultural output will remain broadly steady owing to continued government neglect of the sector, with the exception of fisheries, where the total catch is expected to maintain the upward trend reported in recent years.

Global commodity prices are forecast to remain strong in 2011 and, to a lesser extent, 2012, following their sharp rebound in 2010. This has heightened investor interest, and exploration and output from the non-oil minerals sector will support the medium-term growth outlook. This will hold particularly for non-ferrous metals, such as copper and gold, which have witnessed rapid growth since production began in 2006. Investor interest in uranium mining will also remain strong, as prices continue to be well above historical levels; we expect that a fall in the price of uranium following a nuclear leak in Japan will be temporary. The national iron producer, Société nationale industrielle et minière (SNIM), has received funding for its large investment programme and will oversee construction and expansion activities costing over US$1bn over the next five years. A master plan for the electricity sector has been finalised and the national electricity company will be restructured and recapitalised with the support of donors. Dynamic services such as banking and telecommunications will grow, as firms that were previously deterred from expanding operations will now have more confidence in the regulatory environment and the government's willingness to honour contracts. Overall, we forecast real GDP growth of 6% in 2011, picking up further, to 6.3%, in 2012.