Mauritania's international relations may be strained by unfolding events in North Africa. Mauritania hosted a high-level African Union (AU) committee on March 19th-at the same time as a meeting in Paris attended by the UN, the Arab League, the US and European nations to discuss a no-fly zone over Libya-which was seen as a deliberate snub by Mr Abdel Aziz and the AU in favour of Libya's leader, Muammar Qadhafi. However, at this stage we do not think that Europe (Spain and France in particular) or the US will jeopardise their close relations with Mr Abdel Aziz, for the sake of their strategies to reduce illegal immigration and to combat terrorist activities in the region. Relations with China, now Mauritania's largest trading partner, are set to become closer, especially in the development of ancillary infrastructure for the oil industry. Economic and political ties with the Arab world will strengthen, particularly following recent generous aid pledges to Mauritania.

The government's closer collaboration with Algeria in the fight against AQIM may strain historically strong ties with Morocco, which resents Algeria's stance in relation to the disputed region of Western Sahara. Following the suspension of diplomatic ties with Mali in 2010, in protest at the supposedly soft line taken by the Malian authorities towards AQIM, ties have been restored and co-operation in the fight against terrorism will continue to increase.