Outlook for 2011-12

Despite popular uprisings sweeping across the region as people agitate for democratic expression and employment opportunities, the president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, will continue to consolidate his grip on power. However, increased political activism-which may be beneficial for the country's long-term democratic prospects-has increased the outlook for political instability in the short term. That said, the ruling Union pour la République (UPR) is expected to win a majority of seats in the municipal and legislative elections scheduled to take place in 2011, consolidating Mr Abdel Aziz's control over legislation. Aid pledges have begun to materialise and the current-account deficit will narrow to 5% of GDP in 2011, before widening slightly to 6.2% of GDP in 2012 as a result of increased imports to finance mineral and hydrocarbon exploration and increased public investment. Moreover, mining, private investment and greater emphasis on capital spending in the national budget will boost economic growth, which is forecast to pick up further, to an average of 6.2% a year in 2011-12.

The political scene

A Mauritanian named Yacoub Ould Dahoud, imitating the Tunisian street vendor who ignited the popular uprisings in the region, set himself on fire in front of the presidential palace in the capital, Nouakchott, on January 17th. This started a period of heightened political tension: a youth movement, called the February 25th Movement, has formed; worker's unions have demanded improved working conditions; and single-issue protests, such as for access to water in the east of the county, degenerated into open fighting between protestors and security services. The protestors, however, have so far failed to reach a critical mass that would threaten the regime.

Economic policy

Clearly mindful of the wave of social unrest sweeping across North Africa, the government has announced various populist measures over the past several months. The largest programme, a food-production and -subsidy scheme, dubbed Opération solidarité, was announced by the president on January 20th.

The domestic economy

According to a report by a US government humanitarian agency, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fewsnet), malnutrition declined during 2010.

Foreign trade and payments

Mauritania continued to receive disbursements on aid agreements signed in mid-2010.