Country Report Uganda March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Forecast summary

Forecast summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
	2009a	2010b	2011c	2012c
Real GDP growth	5.3	6.1	6.3	7.0
Consumer price inflation (av)	13.4	4.1a	9.5	8.5
Consumer price inflation (end-period)	10.9	3.1a	8.5	8.0
Lending rate (av)	21.0	20.2a	20.5	21.0
Government balance (% of GDP)d	-1.7	-3.0	-2.1	-3.2
Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	2,987.7	2,971.9	3,288.8	3,581.0
Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	3,787.3	4,250.9	4,635.3	5,455.8
Current-account balance (US$ m)	-451.1	-734.4	-833.9	-1,332.4
Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-2.7	-4.2	-4.3	-6.1
External debt (end-period; US$ bn)	2.6b	2.9	3.2	3.6
Exchange rate USh:US$ (av)	2,030.3	2,177.6a	2,293.9	2,326.1
Exchange rate USh:US$ (end-period)	1,903.5	2,308.3a	2,222.6	2,314.7
Exchange rate USh:¥100 (av)	2,166.7	2,477.9a	2,797.5	2,871.7
Exchange rate USh:€ (end-period)	2,728.1	3,113.9a	2,689.4	2,754.5
a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. d Fiscal years (July 1st-June 30th). Ratio calculated using government/IMF figures of GDP for the fiscal year.

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