The economy is reported to be expanding at a healthy pace, despite a notable decline in the importance of gas exports. Energy exports fell by almost 20% in value terms in 2010, which was a marked difference to performance in previous years, when the sale of increasing volumes of gas at higher prices had provided a substantial windfall to the economy. Furthermore, energy output fell by 3.8% year on year in January 2011. There has been no official explanation for the decline in energy exports in 2010, but it is likely to be linked to Russian demand for Uzbek gas to export to its own markets. It could also be connected to internal regime politics. A leaked US government cable from 2007 reported rumours that Gulnara Karimova, Mr Karimov's daughter, exercised control over four-fifths of gas exports through Zeromax, a Swiss-registered company. The government began closing Zeromax's business operations in 2010, for reasons which remain unclear (July 2010, Economic performance). This may have had a negative effect on the gas supply relationship with Russia.

The economy appears to have prospered, despite the fall in energy exports, because global prices for Uzbekistan's two other main export commodities, gold and cotton, both soared in 2010. Although production of cotton fibre has stagnated at around 1m tonnes annually, and despite the imposition of bans on Uzbek cotton by a number of Western companies, owing to concerns over child labour, revenue from cotton exports rose by 46% year on year in 2010, largely because of a 67% increase in global prices. Similarly, gold prices exceeded US$1,400/oz in March 2011, up by over one-quarter year on year, following a rise of 26% in 2010. Although the government does not publish gold production figures, output is probably close to 100 tonnes annually.