The president, Islam Karimov, appears worried that the uprisings against authoritarian rulers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could spread to Central Asia. Although the MENA unrest has so far had no direct impact on former Soviet states, there have been anti-government demonstrations in Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent weeks. Any spread of large-scale unrest to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) would be much more likely to affect the situation in Uzbekistan. In his Nowruz (Persian New Year) address on March 21st, Mr Karimov talked about the need to safeguard Uzbekistan's achievements-an implicit call for stability and a warning against any unrest.

The authorities have also taken a series of concrete measures to try to prevent potential unrest. The government has reportedly imposed increasing controls over electronic communications. According to the privately owned Times of Central Asia, the Communication and Information Agency of Uzbekistan is asking mobile telephony firms and Internet service providers (ISPs) to report the mass dissemination of text messages that might incite unrest. Protest organisers have used mass text-messaging to mobilise crowds in Moldova and Belarus in the recent past. In addition, numerous visitors from the Kyrgyz Republic-which saw an outbreak of inter-ethnic violence in June 2010, following the violent overthrow of the then president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, in April 2010-have been refused entry to Uzbekistan across land borders in recent months.

The security services have also continued their crackdown on religious activity, under the guise of counter-terrorism measures. In March a number of bookshops selling religious literature were closed, with the authorities claiming that they were selling illegal publications, the list of which has been broadened in recent years and encompasses many books of a non-extremist nature. The authorities have continued to harass religious groups, with a Baptist service halted by police in mid-March. Mosques have also reportedly been under pressure not to lead prayer sessions during working hours.