Country Report Uzbekistan April 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Forecast summary

Forecast summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
Real GDP growth	8.1c	8.5c	8.7	9.0
Consumer price inflation (av)d	14.1	15.0	16.0	14.0
Consumer price inflation (end-period)d	10.6	16.0	17.3	14.0
Government balance (% of GDP)	0.2c	0.3c	-0.2	-0.3
Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	10,735	12,010	13,160	12,680
Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-9,023	-8,030	-8,210	-8,430
Current-account balance (US$ m)	3,545	5,843	7,054	6,159
Current-account balance (% of GDP)	10.8	15.0	15.3	11.4
External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	3.8	3.9	3.9	4.1
Exchange rate Som:US$ (av)	1,467c	1,587c	1,696	1,793
Exchange rate Som:US$ (end-period)	1,510c	1,638c	1,736	1,843
Exchange rate Som:€ (av)	2,043c	2,104c	2,217	2,242
Exchange rate Som:€ (end-period)	2,164c	2,224c	2,187	2,249
a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Actual. d The data are based on the IMF's inflation measure.

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