Relations with the US and the EU have improved from a low in 2005, driven by anti-terrorist initiatives, the regional security agenda, the small steps taken by the Uzbek authorities towards tackling human rights concerns, and the desire of some EU states to look for alternative energy sources in Central Asia in order to reduce their reliance on Russia. The US is becoming a more prominent partner in anti-terrorism measures, following an agreement in 2009 to allow US non-munitions supplies to Afghanistan to transit Uzbek territory. Relations with Russia will occasionally be troubled, largely because of Russia's desire to increase its military presence in the region (Russia has mooted plans to build a second military base in the Kyrgyz Republic, close to the border with Uzbekistan).

Ties with Uzbekistan's neighbours in Central Asia will occasionally be tense. The unrest in 2010 in the Kyrgyz Republic caused Uzbekistan temporarily to close its borders with that country, and relations will remain strained because of border demarcation disputes, as well as ethnic tensions within the two countries' populations. Nevertheless, the Uzbek authorities are likely to support the Kyrgyz government, as it is in Uzbekistan's interest that the situation in the Kyrgyz Republic stabilises. Ongoing disputes over water and energy supplies will also exacerbate tensions between Uzbekistan and its neighbours. Depending on how the security situation develops in Afghanistan (and, increasingly, in Tajikistan), there is a risk that insurgents in those countries-among them significant numbers of ethnic Uzbeks-could expand their activities into Uzbekistan.