The president, Islam Karimov, dominates the political scene, and there is little prospect of democratisation over the forecast period. Mr Karimov, who was last elected for a seven-year term in December 2007, is expected to maintain a firm grip on power, as there seems to be no co-ordinated opposition to his rule from within the political hierarchy. Furthermore, years of repression have prevented the emergence of an opposition figure capable of challenging him successfully. Most of his opponents are living in exile. The centralisation of power in the person of Mr Karimov makes for a highly uncertain outlook once he eventually departs the political scene. Doubts over the 73-year-old leader's health add to the uncertainty.

The risks to stability in 2011-12 are compounded by the possibility of social unrest. The Economist Intelligence Unit does not perceive any immediate risk that the recent popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could directly spill over into Uzbekistan. Moreover, the authorities would act swiftly, and with force if necessary, to quell protests. If other authoritarian regimes in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) were to be toppled-which cannot be ruled out, with Azerbaijan appearing most vulnerable-then the Uzbek regime could be at risk, since the demonstration effect of such an uprising in its immediate neighbourhood would be much stronger.

Uzbekistan could also be destabilised by the uncertain situation in the neighbouring Kyrgyz Republic, following ethnic violence there, although it appeared to cope adequately with the temporary influx of up to 100,000 refugees from the south of the Kyrgyz Republic in mid-June 2010. Opposition groups will remain too weak to mobilise a mass civil movement against the authorities. Furthermore, genuine opposition parties were impeded from taking part in the parliamentary election in December 2009. Consequently, given the lack of legitimate avenues of protest or opposition, spontaneous popular unrest, sparked by social and economic grievances, could increase. The occurrence of such violent unrest as seen in the Kyrgyz Republic in mid-2010 is unlikely in Uzbekistan, as the response of the security forces to any public upheaval would be much harsher. The authorities have also been keen to play down any hint of popular anti-Kyrgyz sentiment that might give rise to inter-ethnic violence.