Country Report Yemen March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Inflation

We expect inflation to remain relatively stable in 2011-12, although the gradual phasing-out of fuel subsidies will keep price growth in double-digits, and perpetually volatile global commodity prices remain a cause for uncertainty. In addition, we expect that the riyal will begin to weaken once more from around mid-2011, pushing up the cost of imports. As a result, we forecast that inflation will rise from an estimated average of 11.2% in 2010 to 13.3% in 2011, before dipping slightly to 11.6% in 2012 as global non-oil commodity prices decline.

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