WikiLeaks revelations prove supportive for Israel

The revelations contained in the US State Department cables published by WikiLeaks, a whistle-blowing website, have given Israel a rare diplomatic victory-although they are unlikely to change the course of Middle East diplomacy.

In terms of the commentary on intelligence matters as well as political assessments, Israel came out looking "clean". The briefings that Israeli officials gave to US diplomats in private were, on the whole, the same as those delivered to the media for public consumption. Consequently, Israel did not appear to be two-faced in dealing with key issues (although it should also be noted that only a small fraction of the cables has so far been published; according to the WikiLeaks' founder, Julian Assange, the next six months will see the publication of thousands of documents relating to Israel).

Admittedly, some comments made by the director of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, Meir Dagan, were embarrassing. He called the emir of Qatar "annoying," and said that the king of Morocco is not interested in governing. But Mr Dagan was due to complete his term of office at the end of 2010, to be replaced by his former deputy, Tamir Pardo. Also, Mr Dagan's assessments were highly valued by the US above and beyond his status as Israel's spy chief.

The key positive aspect for Israel of the WikiLeaks revelations arises out of various comments regarding Iran. Israeli leaders, notably the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, have long maintained that the key problem that needs to be addressed in the Middle East is not Palestinian statehood but Iran's nuclear programme and ambitions for regional hegemony. The Obama administration has appeared to argue otherwise, contending that Israel has to first move forwards on Palestinian negotiations in order to mobilise support in the region against Iran-hence the immense effort expended by the White House in trying to convince Israel to freeze West Bank settlement activity.

The WikiLeaks cables appear to support Mr Netanyahu's position. According to one release, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia told the White House counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, in March 2009 that the administration of Barack Obama should review its policy towards Iran, implying that he had strong reservations about the US attempting to engage the leaders of the Islamic Republic. (An earlier cable quoted the Saudi ambassador in Washington as telling his US interlocutor that the king had urged the former president, George W Bush, to "cut off the head of the snake", which has been widely interpreted as indicating that Saudi Arabia would like the US to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities). King Hamad of Bahrain, in a meeting with the then head of US Central Command, General David Petraeus, also urged that action be taken to terminate Iran's nuclear programme. Cables from the US ambassador to Egypt, Margaret Scobey, indicate that the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, was not opposed to dialogue with Iran, "so long as the [US] does not believe a word [the Iranians] say". According to Ms Scobey, Mr Mubarak has a "visceral hatred" for Iran. Gulf leaders from Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Oman were also quoted as being concerned about Iran.

In the words of the Israeli prime minister, "This is the first time in modern history that there is not insignificant agreement both in Jerusalem and in countries in the region that the central threat flows from Iran, its hegemonic plans and proliferation steps." He noted that the revelations could aid peace by changing the narrative that Israel is the danger to peace and security in the region.

Mr Netanyahu is probably too optimistic. In the Gulf, Iran is certainly seen as the central threat, but closer to Israel's borders, the Palestinian issue remains paramount for Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. In any event, although the Obama administration was obviously aware of the views of various Arab leaders before WikiLeaks exposed them to the public, they did not lead to a change in US policy. Meanwhile, in the wake of the leaks, it is interesting to note that the Gulf Co-operation Council has adopted a conciliatory tone in its public comments on Iran, and Iran's new foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, has called for efforts to improve his country's relations with Saudi Arabia.