An increase in the merchandise trade deficit in 2011, as the pace of export growth moderates, will lead to modest fall in Israel's structural current-account surplus. However, helped by a continued strong performance on the part of business services-predominantly software and other high-tech-related products-the surplus on the current account will still amount to a sizeable US$6.8bn (2.8% of GDP). Later in the forecast period, the merchandise trade balance will start to benefit from reduced energy imports, as recent discoveries of offshore gas start to come on stream, boosting the current-account surplus to nearly 5% of GDP in 2015. The precise impact of the gas windfall is difficult to quantify at this stage. But if predictions of a surplus for export turn out to be accurate, it will further bolster Israel's already strong balance-of-payments position, prompting calls for the introduction of a sovereign wealth fund.