The budget deficit (excluding credit) narrowed to NIS 15.9bn (US$4.4bn) in January-November 2010, little more than half the level recorded in the corresponding period of 2009. Despite a likely boost to spending in December, as the government brings forward 2011 expenditure, the Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that the fiscal deficit narrowed to the equivalent of 3.7% of GDP in 2010 as a whole, well below the 2009 outturn of 5.1%. Under the two-year draft budget for 2011-12, growth in real spending has been capped at 2.7% a year. The government is aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to a maximum of 3% of GDP in 2011 and 2% of GDP in 2012. These targets appear realistic, as long as there is no unexpected deterioration in the security situation (which would result in additional spending). By the end of the forecast period in 2015, we expect the fiscal account to have moved into overall surplus.