Country Report Israel January 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Election watch

Elections for the Knesset take place every four years. The next poll is not due until 2013. However, an earlier election could be triggered by a number of events, including the prime minister's resignation or the government's defeat on a no-confidence motion in the Knesset. Given the volatile nature of Israeli politics, it would be remarkable indeed if the current coalition were to complete its full term; no government has done so since 1984-88. Although the Labour Party is currently the weak link in the coalition, the loss of its 13 seats would still leave the government with a slim majority (of one) in the Knesset. The departure of Yisrael Beiteinu, with its 15 seats, would be more problematic for Mr Netanyahu. In such circumstances, he would probably seek to bring the centrist Kadima party, led by Tzipi Livni, on board. If successful, this would provide Mr Netanyahu with a large enough majority to remain in government. However, there is also a risk that such a realignment would antagonise the more right-wing factions within Likud, leading to its second major split since 2005 and setting off a chain of events that leads to an early election.

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