While it appears increasingly likely that Mr Museveni and the NRM will retain their political stranglehold in the next parliament, it is far less certain that the election will pass off peacefully. One of the more sobering findings of Afrobarometer's poll was that more than 70% of respondents expect there to be violence after the elections; the US government has already warned its citizens against travelling in Uganda in the election period. The risk is that the opposition parties refuse to accept the results and resort to violence, perhaps encouraged by the recent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. The signs are ominous: in the past Mr Besigye has intimated that he would be prepared to lead a bush war against Mr Museveni, and he has stated that he will make his own declaration of the result of the presidential election ahead of the official announcement from the Electoral Commission (EC). He claims, not without grounds, that the EC is biased towards the president and that it cheated him out of victory in 2006. If the EC version of the 2011 result turns out to be less generous to Mr Besigye than his own version, violence could ensue.

Another possible source of violence comes from extreme Buganda nationalists, who will see their dream of an independent Buganda disappear for at least another five years if Mr Museveni triumphs. They have already been enraged by the passing in 2009 of a land law that gave more rights to tenants but which some in Buganda see as encroaching on the king of Buganda's territory, as well as by the authorities' refusal to allow the king to attend a cultural ceremony in Kuyunga in 2009 (November 2009, The political scene). They were recently given further cause for complaint with the parliamentary passage of the Institution of Traditional and Cultural Leaders Bill. This bill was intended to flesh out provisions relating to cultural leaders in article 246 of the constitution, but some in Buganda claim that it is a further attempt by the government to undermine the position of their king. The importance of the Buganda vote can be gauged by Mr Museveni's decision to end his campaigning there in a mass rally two days before polling day. While there is a high chance of post-election violence, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects that Mr Museveni's strong grip on the police and army will result in a tough crackdown, ensuring that such protests will be brief, if bloody.