The predictions of these opinion polls chime with reports of growing confidence in the NRM camp and dissention within the ranks of the opposition parties, marked by desertions to the ruling party. In an important development, the NRM leadership has softened its stance on the issue of independent party candidates, who are normally in alliance with the NRM, standing against official party candidates. There are around 300 independents standing in the parliamentary election and most of these are affiliated to the NRM, which raises the risk that they will split the party vote and lose seats. The party's election task-force has reportedly received instructions from the leadership to work with the independents, as far as possible, in order to keep the opposition out. Part of the reasoning for this softening stance is that many of the independents have legitimate complaints about the lack of fairness in the primaries (October 2010, The political scene). However, despite the conciliatory noises from the party's hierarchy and press reports of several independents withdrawing from the elections, it seems likely that a number of official NRM candidates will lose, and that there will be cases where opposition candidates will benefit from a split NRM vote.

Meanwhile the influence of the Inter-Party Co-operation (IPC) coalition has been weakened by the decision of the second- and third-largest opposition parties, the Uganda People's Congress and the Democratic Party (DP), to remain outside the alliance and campaign independently. The IPC thus only consists of the Freedom for Democratic Change party and three smaller parties-the Conservative Party, the Justice Forum (JEEMA) and a southern DP faction opposed to Norbert Mao's leadership of the party. The IPC has been dealt a further blow over the crucial issue of federo-the mainly Buganda-supported desire for regional autonomy within a federal structure. Federo is being pushed as an election issue by a Buganda political group known initially as Ssubi 2011 but now calling itself IPC Buganda, which is unhappy about the lukewarm support given to its aims by the IPC presidential candidate, Kizza Besigye. Mr Besigye knows that federo is not popular outside Buganda and has toned down his campaign speeches accordingly, to the chagrin of those in IPC Buganda.