Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for February 18th could provide the greatest challenge yet to the hegemony of Mr Museveni and the NRM, who have ruled since coming to power in 1986. Mr Museveni has dominated the Ugandan political scene for over two decades, yet the strongest opposition contender, Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change, could oust him at the polls if a number of factors fall into place. Regional pressures, particularly in Buganda, will deprive Mr Museveni of some support, and this will be compounded by a youthful population with poor job opportunities and little loyalty to the NRM. Moreover, a field of eight presidential candidates, some with a significant following, could prevent Mr Museveni from winning 51% of the vote, forcing a run-off against Mr Besigye, who could then unite the opposition behind him in an anti-Museveni vote.

However, even if Mr Besigye were able to increase his share of the vote from the 37% that he won in 2006, he would require free and fair elections to defeat Mr Museveni, and the playing field will not be level. Opposition parties, and even some donors, have complained about the preparedness of the Electoral Commission, and there have been "irregularities" in previous elections. Moreover, the descent into chaos of the NRM primary elections in August 2010, with widespread vote-rigging, ballot-stuffing and violence, suggests that voter intimidation will be rife in February. The opposition has also dealt itself a blow with the fragmentation of the Inter-Party Co-operation coalition as a result of the presidential ambitions of the party leaders. There is still an outside chance that one or more of the opposition parties could withdraw from the elections if they feel the electoral environment is too biased towards the NRM.

Mr Museveni is an astute political operator who has been winning power struggles with the opposition and within the NRM for more than 20 years, and the Economist Intelligence Unit expects him to win re-election in February. The NRM has had a growing problem in recent years with members who were defeated in primary elections running as independents, and we expect disaffected members running as independents to split the NRM vote, costing the party some seats to opposition candidates. However, we still expect the NRM to retain a majority in parliament.