The president, Yoweri Museveni, and his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party will face serious challenges to their grip on authority, particularly around the time of the elections in February. Buganda, an area with a constitutional monarchy and a local parliament, which was previously a stronghold of NRM support, will feature prominently. Mr Museveni has tried to placate local sentiment by promising to devolve some powers to the regional level while maintaining control of the most important matters at the central government level. Whether this will be sufficient to mollify Buganda is questionable, especially as such promises fall far short of its aim of federo (an independent Buganda within a federal Uganda). There are strong regional concerns about obtaining a voice in government, and even within the NRM Mr Museveni faces criticism about the western bias in government.

However, the president and the ruling party are expected to maintain a reasonable degree of political stability, helped by improved economic circumstances. Inflation has fallen sharply over the past year, improving the purchasing power of households, and economic growth looks set to remain robust. Mr Museveni remains personally popular, particular in rural areas, and the NRM has a large financial advantage over opposition parties. Reforms in local government will appease some of those looking for the devolution of power. There will be outbreaks of violence around election day, but Mr Museveni has total control of the Ugandan army and has strengthened his grip on the police force, which makes wider political instability unlikely.