Country Report Vietnam March 2011

Economic performance: Vietnam's trade deficit remains wide

Vietnam's trade performance revealed a large deficit that continues to exert downward pressure on the value of the country's currency. In February the trade deficit expanded to US$950m from a revised estimate of US$877m in January. The General Statistics Office initially estimated the deficit in January to be US$1bn. Export revenue reached US$5.3bn in that month, up by around 40% year on year. Exports of textiles grew by 51% year on year, to reach US$900m, while footwear exports rose by 37%, to reach US$370m. Exports of most other manufactured goods posted healthy growth in February, notably electronics and computers, which grew by almost 26%. Commodity exports also performed well, with the value of coffee exports rising by 64%, to US$180m, and rice exports jumping by 61%, to US$330m. Crude oil exports also grew on a year-on-year basis, rising by 67% to US$517m.

Meanwhile, the import bill rose by 22% on a yearly basis in February, to an estimated US$6.2bn. As a result of both rising prices and higher import volume, the bill for imported petroleum products reached US$760m in February, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Steel imports rose by 6% to US$350m, while machinery and equipment imports, the largest import group, were up by 26% to US$950m. The bill for imports of electronics, computers and spare parts grew by 6% on a year-on-year basis, to US$350m.

Although the wide merchandise trade deficit continues to raise worries over potential financing problems, the foreign-invested sector accounts for around 40% of total imports and import demand in this sector is rising at a faster pace than that of the domestic sector. This suggests that much of the rise in the import bill is being met by foreign-invested firms. However, the latest data on approvals of foreign direct investment (FDI) suggest that foreign-investor confidence may be waning. The value of approved FDI projects in the first two months of the year was US$1.6bn, about 32% lower than the same period in 2010. In February there were 93 newly licensed projects worth US$1.5bn, with the remainder being accounted for by additional investment by firms already registered in the country.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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