Country Report Vietnam March 2011

Economic performance: Inflation remains a major risk to Vietnam's growth prospects

Inflation is now clearly established as the single largest issue facing the Vietnamese economy with the potential to derail the country's longer-term growth prospects. A persistent failure to rein in prices has undermined confidence in the stability of the economy and the viability of the currency which, in turn, has put additional upward pressure on prices. In February consumer price inflation rose by 12.3% year on year, compared with an increase of 12.2% in January. On a monthly basis the CPI increased by 2.1%, the largest monthly increase since 2008. The rise was largely driven by growing demand for goods and services in the run-up to the annual Tet (Lunar New Year) holidays, when much of the country shuts down for several days (this year the holiday took place in early February). Unseasonably cold weather also contributed to higher prices, with tens of thousands of cattle in northern Vietnam reported to have died. The devaluation of the dong on February 11th may have also contributed to the increase in prices as the import bill would have increased as a result of the weaker currency. Prices increased across the board, with food prices increasing by 17.2% year on year. Prices also increased year on year for beverages and cigarettes (17.2%), garments and footwear (9%), household appliances (6.5%), healthcare (4.1%) and education (23.5%).

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