Maintaining stability in the exchange rate between the dong and the US dollar will remain a challenge for policymakers. In the face of strong downward pressure on the dong, the SBV has devalued the currency on four occasions since November 2009, most recently in February 2011. The devaluations have resulted in a cumulative drop of almost 14% in the currency's value against the US dollar. Further such measures are likely to be necessary in the coming years as the dong will remain under pressure until there are clear signs that the trade deficit is narrowing and inflationary pressures are receding. Moreover, Vietnam's meagre foreign-exchange reserves mean that the central bank will not be able to stem any downward pressure by intervening in the currency markets. According to the latest available data from the IMF, foreign-exchange reserves stood at US$14.1bn (equivalent to around eight weeks of imports) in October 2010, down from a high of US$26.4bn in March 2008. Recent media reports have quoted a government minister as saying that reserves stood at more than US$10bn in December 2010, although the exact level of reserves was not specified. On balance, we forecast that the dong will depreciate by 4.3% a year in 2011-15, dropping from D19,127:US$1 in 2010 to D23,873:US$1 in 2015.