The average rate of consumer price inflation is now forecast to accelerate to 14.3% in 2011 (up from the previous forecast of 12.3%) from 9% in 2010, before slowing to an average rate of 7.8% a year in 2012-15. The acceleration this year partly reflects the fact that the domestic price level remains vulnerable to movements in international commodity prices. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects crude oil prices (dated Brent Blend) to rise by 13% this year and food prices to rise by 27%, up from 20% previously. Global commodity prices will fall in 2012, however, and are forecast to remain relatively stable in 2013-15, and this will help to calm supply-side price pressures. However, strong demand-side pressures will continue to push up the overall price level. Although the authorities appear intent on slowing the pace of growth in domestic credit, the target for this year has been lowered only slightly from 23% to below 20%. We therefore still forecast that the stock of domestic credit will rise by an average rate of around 21% a year in 2011-15. The continued depreciation of the dong against the US dollar over the next five years will also serve to make imports more expensive.