Country Report Vietnam March 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

The SBV will continue to adjust policy on an ad hoc basis, and policymaking will remain inconsistent. The main objective of the SBV's approach will be to combat inflation while ensuring that the cost of financing does not undermine economic growth. The policy tools available to the central bank include a mix of both direct and indirect instruments. In February 2011 the SBV tightened monetary policy by increasing its refinance rate and the reverse repo rate in an attempt to slow the expansion of credit. In early 2010 it removed the cap on commercial bank lending rates, previously limited to 1.5 times the base rate, rendering the rate ineffective as a tool to influence monetary conditions. However, the SBV announced a cap on deposit rates in late 2010, and warned in March 2011 that it would double reserve requirements for banks that fail to reduce the ratio of lending to non-productive activities (as a percentage of total lending) to below 16% by the end of the year. Whether these measures are sufficient to cool an overheated economy remains to be seen. But with the CPV endorsing a five-year plan targeting annual real GDP growth of 7-7.5% and maximum inflation of 7%, the SBV could loosen its policy stance if inflation slows, as it did in mid-2010.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
IMPRINT