The ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will maintain a firm grip on power in the next five years, and, despite signs of factional splits between conservative hardliners and relative reformers, there is no prospect of any major internal instability. Indeed, at the party's 11th national congress, in January, there were displays of unity as the party continued to espouse one-party rule. The congress did provide a chance for different factions to stake a claim to greater influence, but the spoils have been shared. The beleaguered prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, appears to have kept his post-his reappointment will only be formally made following the formation of the 13th National Assembly (NA, the legislature) after national elections in May. Truong Tan Sang, the head of the CPV secretariat, is in line to become president. Although the presidency is largely a ceremonial post, Mr Sang is one of Mr Dung's most formidable rivals within the party and is regarded as being a highly influential member of the party's conservative bloc. The post of party general secretary has gone to a Marxist theorist, Nguyen Phu Trong, who will stand down as chairman of the NA. The choice of Mr Trong, who is widely regarded as being a moderate, was possibly a compromise, providing some balance to the rivalry between Mr Dung and Mr Sang. However, given that Mr Trong is already 66, unlike his predecessor, Nong Duc Manh, he is not expected to serve two five-year terms. This suggests that internal power struggles could be reignited towards the end of the forecast period, ahead of the next congress.

Although Mr Dung's continuation in office has been endorsed by the CPV, his reputation has been damaged by the near-collapse of one of the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group (Vinashin), and his political opponents have appeared bent on using the debacle as a way to reduce his political power. The prime minister may thus have secured a reprieve, but at the cost of a significant reduction in his authority, with conservatives demanding greater control over the policy agenda.

The CPV will continue to face objections from some quarters to its long-standing claim that it has the right to govern unchallenged. However, given the generally high level of political apathy, together with the regime's determination to crackdown on activists who advocate genuine democratic reform, there is little likelihood that any opposition movement will gain traction. Therefore the likelihood that Vietnam will suffer an upheaval similar to that in the Arab world is low. Protests over land seizures, however, could become more common over the forecast period. The fast pace of industrial development in Vietnam has entailed the increasingly rapid construction of factories, plants and large infrastructure projects, such as roads and dams, throughout the country. As a result, the number of displaced residents has risen, and some have been vocal about what they perceive as inadequate government compensation for the loss of their land. Meanwhile, corruption in local bureaucracies occasionally results in the embezzlement of funds earmarked to compensate people who have been evicted from their land, leaving them dispossessed and with inadequate resources to rebuild their livelihoods. Public anger over such issues will intensify unless the authorities take action to punish corrupt local officials.

Tensions between the authorities and religious and ethnic-minority groups could come to the fore again in the next five years, with the state taking a harder line against minorities. The CPV tolerates religious activity as long as it does not pose a threat to the regime, although there have been flashpoints recently in the party's dealings with the Roman Catholic church. The party has warned that "social disorder" arising from land disputes over religious property will be strictly punished. The confiscation of property belonging to the Catholic church between the 1950s and 1970s remains a sore point in relations between the Vietnamese government, the local church and the Vatican. There are 6m Catholics in Vietnam, making the Catholic church the largest organisation in the country outside the orbit of the CPV. The party leadership will also remain concerned about the potential for social unrest in the Central Highlands. The area is largely populated by ethnic-minority groups, and, owing to the fact that party membership is not common, official control in the region is relatively weak.