The current account is dominated by hydrocarbons exports. Earnings from goods exports are expected to average US$49bn a year in 2011-15, from US$46.5bn in 2010. Trends in exports will follow oil price movements; we expect dated Brent Blend to peak at an average of US$82/b in 2011 before dropping to US$71/b in 2015. The drop in oil prices towards the end of the forecast period will be compensated for by small increases in production. Goods imports will continue their trend of steady growth over the forecast period, rising from US$24.6bn in 2010 to US$32.7bn in 2015. Rising imports will be a result of growing inputs into government development projects and expanding consumer demand. Consequently, we forecast that the trade surplus will average US$19.8bn in 2011-15.

The most important element of the services account is oil-sector payments abroad, which are expected to almost stagnate in line with the slow development of the sector. We therefore expect the services deficit to remain steady at an average of US$4.8bn in 2011-15. The income surplus is forecast to increase owing to growth in dividends from Libya's rapidly expanding investments abroad and low growth in profit repatriation by foreign oil companies. Owing to the dominance of oil exports, the current-account surplus will rise and fall with oil prices and is expected to average US$14.7bn (16.5% of GDP) in 2011-15.