The government has usually had a healthy budget surplus in recent years owing to high oil revenue and a tendency to fall short of spending commitments. We estimate that the 2010 surplus was 9.1% of GDP, well below the average of 21% in 2006-09, mainly owing to plans to increase expenditure by 32%. Current expenditure is being driven higher as efforts to cut the size of the civil service have been delayed, a public-sector pay rise is planned and subsidies will be kept in place to control consumer prices. In 2011-15 oil prices will remain relatively high at an average of US$78/barrel. However, this will not be high enough to give the government confidence to significantly increase capital expenditure, which will therefore remain relatively stagnant. The upshot will be an increase in the budget surplus to 12.1% of GDP in 2012, although this will drop to 10.5% of GDP in 2015 as oil prices fall owing to excess global supply.