Country Report Libya January 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: International relations

Foreign relations will generally improve now that Libya has been reintegrated into the international community after renouncing its weapons of mass destruction programme and reaching settlements over past involvement with terrorism, such as the 1988 bombing of a plane over Lockerbie, Scotland. Nonetheless, the Libyan government is likely to remain embroiled in unpleasant disagreements with various countries, although the majority of these will have no serious consequences. A dispute with Switzerland, sparked by the arrest of a son of Colonel Qadhafi in Geneva in 2008 for allegedly mistreating a maid, seriously damaged commercial and diplomatic relations and also threatened Libyan relations with the EU, although it has now been resolved. Libya's past involvement in terrorist activities will continue to resurface, souring international relations. The case of a British oil major, BP, which has been accused by US senators of lobbying for the release of the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, is an example. After much wrangling, a deal has finally been reached for co-operation on immigration between the EU and Libya, which should clear the way for an improvement in relations across a broad range of political and economic issues. Colonel Qadhafi will continue to seek to strengthen ties with the US and the EU, particularly Italy, while sporadically voicing anti-Western rhetoric and engaging with countries viewed as rivals of the US, such as Russia and China.

Efforts to integrate Libya into the international community will continue, and the country was recently elected to the UN Human Rights Council, although not without strong protests from human rights campaigners. Generally, economic imperatives, mainly in the oil and gas sectors, are likely to dictate relations with the West. Libya will also continue to have tense relations with a number of other Arab states. Poor ties with Arab states have encouraged Libya to focus on ambitions to lead Africa towards continental unity. The growing wealth of the Libyan Investment Authority, a sovereign wealth fund, and its increasingly strategic objectives will help to increase Libya's international clout, particularly in Africa, which will be a focus of investment.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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