Tunisia is still far from a state of normality. An atmosphere of insecurity continues, as does social and economic unrest, with many strikes and sit-ins. Low-level protests and demonstrations continue, and the government's critics are ready to take to the streets to ensure that the authorities maintain the momentum of political reform, as demonstrated by the violent clashes in the capital, Tunis, between police and anti-government demonstrators that erupted in early May. Much of the political uncertainty derives from continuing concerns about the legitimacy and intentions of the interim government, the third since the fall of Mr Ben Ali. The government is an unelected body appointed by the interim president, Mr Mebazaa, and the interim prime minister, Béji Caid Essebsi, both of whom once served under Mr Ben Ali (although both also held high office under the former president, Habib Bourguiba). Mr Mebazaa, 77, was a member of the RCD central committee between 1988 and 2011, and president of the Chamber of Deputies (the lower house of parliament) from 1997 until Mr Ben Ali's fall. Mr Essebsi, 84, was never a member of the RCD, but he was briefly president of the Chamber of Deputies under Mr Ben Ali. The chief of the armed forces, General Rachid Ben Ammar, who has promised to defend the revolution, is a Ben Ali appointee. Other individuals, including businessmen, close to Mr Ben Ali also retain influence through long-standing ties with Mr Mebazaa and Mr Essebsi. None of these men were at the forefront of the popular uprising against Mr Ben Ali.

This has raised fears that the core of the RCD establishment remains in power behind the scenes, and is determined to re-constitute itself and derail the democratic transition, possibly through a military coup. Some of the actions of the interim government have helped to reinforce that perception. The sacking of Farhat Rahji as interior minister seemed designed to halt his purge of the Ministry of Interior and the feared security services. The suspension of the official commission set up in February to investigate corruption and embezzlement as well as the brutality of the police against demonstrators and journalists during the protests at the start of May also raises doubts. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes, on balance, that the intentions of the interim government are not dishonourable; international and domestic pressure should be enough to prevent a return to the old ways, although this will not be confirmed for many months yet.