Country Report Tunisia June 2011

The political scene: National Constituent Assembly election is postponed

The crucial election for the National Constituent Assembly, which will write a new constitution and prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections, has been postponed from July 24th to October 16th. The move has the reluctant support of most political parties. According to opinion polls, roughly half of the Tunisian public accepts the delay but many deeply oppose it and fear that the interim government is stalling on its promise to introduce democracy. At the very least, the delay will prolong the state of uncertainty pervading the country and at worst could spark renewed unrest.

The 16-person independent electoral commission, the High Independent Panel, established on May 10th by the Commission for the Achievement of the Objectives of the Revolution and the Democratic Transition (CAORDT), wants to postpone the election to October 16th on the grounds that it is impossible to make the necessary arrangements before then. Kamel Jendoubi, the chair of the commission told a meeting of political parties on May 26th that voting cards had to be distributed to some 400,000 new voters (out of a total of some 7m), 24,000 people needed to be trained to run the election, and 1,500 registration centres and 8,000 polling stations had to be established.

The interim government said it preferred to retain the July 24th date but would take the electoral commission's advice. A postponement was also accepted, if reluctantly, by most political parties from across the political spectrum, although the Islamist Hizb al-Nahda and the Parti démocratique progressiste called for the political parties to have a say in setting the new date. However, the delay to the election has divided public opinion. An online poll commissioned by a local think-tank, politik.tn, on May 25th showed 48% of respondents in favour of the postponement and 47% against, with 5% undecided. The results mirror those of a recent survey by a local consultancy, GMS, in which half of the respondents were supportive of the interim government and half opposed to it. This split in public opinion reflects the strong and persistent doubts over the integrity and intentions of the interim government.

Postponing the election will prolong the period of uncertainty and instability that has gripped Tunisia since the ouster of the former president. It might also provoke further anti-government demonstrations and violence. However, the delay would be justified if it resulted in an election that was well organised and whose result was beyond reproach, rather than one that lacked legitimacy and led to continued instability, with knock-on effects regionally. The delay will allow the political parties-of which there are over 70, most of them unknown to most Tunisians-to develop their manifestoes, organise their campaigns and make themselves known; after 24 years of repression under the previous president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, free and open political campaigning remains a novelty for politicians and public alike.

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