The Islamist Hizb al-Nahda is expected to do well in the election

Speculation is growing that a moderate Islamist party, Hizb al-Nahda, will win the most seats in the forthcoming election for the National Constituent Assembly. Islamist slogans and Islamist parties were notably absent from the uprising that led to the demise of the old regime. Although we do not expect any party to emerge as the clear winner, al-Nahda stands to benefit from the growth of moderate Islamic sentiment. In addition, because more radical Islamist groups have failed to win legal status, Hizb al-Nahda will pick up most of the Islamist vote. How big that is remains unquantifiable. Party activists are hard at work re-building the support base suppressed during the Ben Ali years and engaging in welfare and social activity. For example, Hizb al-Nahda volunteers played a large part in restoring calm and order to the poor quarters of the capital, Tunis, that witnessed violent anti-government demonstrations in early May, protecting shops and homes from looting, calming down angry youths when the police presence vanished, and clearing burnt-out cars, roadblocks and mounds of garbage afterwards-in effect replacing the official authorities. This kind of activity will boost its popularity among poorer echelons of society. Recognising the nervousness of secular parties, Hizb al-Nahda has gone out of its way to emphasise its tolerance, openness and moderation, and commitment to democracy and women's rights and to reject claims that it wants to introduce sharia (Islamic law).

Parties established by ex-members of the former ruling party, the Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique. (RCD) could also do well. Although the party has been disbanded, its assets seized, and senior party members are banned from standing in the election, most of the party's 2m former members are free to set up new parties and take part. The RCD's residual support base could fragment among several parties; however, if some of these parties came together to form alliances the resultant coalitions could do well. While most former RCD members joined the ruling party for personal advancement rather than political conviction, many of them would probably support such alliances to protect their own positions.

In the face of the potential challenge from Hizb al-Nahda and the residual RCD, some small parties are seeking to form coalitions. For example, nine left-of-centre parties, including Harakat Ettajdid (the former communist party), have established a coalition to challenge what they termed "Islamist forces" and "former [RCD] forces", and have invited other parties to join them. We expect more parties to form electoral blocs in coming months.