Country Report Tunisia June 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Election watch

The election for the National Constituent Assembly has been pushed back from July 24th to October 16th, stoking fears that the interim government is stalling on its promise to introduce democracy. The Assembly, which will have 218 seats, will be responsible for rewriting the constitution, which will pave the way for parliamentary and presidential elections, which are most likely to take place in the first half of 2012. The interim government has agreed to a system of proportional representation through party lists, which will favour the smaller parties, of which there are now many. Currently, more than 70 political parties are in discussions over how to proceed with organising elections. Candidates for the presidency are likely to include leaders of the main opposition parties, exiled leaders from parties that were banned by Mr Ben Ali and independents, including former members of the RCD. In previous elections, opposition parties were not free to campaign to a degree that would threaten the RCD. (In fact, in large cities such as Tunis, Sfax and Sousse, opposition parties were banned from campaigning.) The current parliament has not been dissolved but is, in reality, powerless since the speaker of parliament (and interim president), Foued Mebazaa, has the power to rule by decree. The constitution will need to be rewritten as it contains tailor-made amendments by Mr Ben Ali that made it virtually impossible for a non-RCD member to stand for president. The outcome of the assembly election will most probably see the establishment of a strongly prescriptive constitution, which outlines rules for government, and a parliament, albeit one which is plagued by internal rifts.

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