The IMF's reports on its Article IV and ECF consultations also contain its latest macroeconomic estimates for Comoros. These are broadly positive. According to the Fund's preliminary data, real GDP growth strengthened to 2.1% in 2010-the most rapid rate since 2005-notwithstanding the difficult external environment. This expansion was underpinned by a rebound in donor-funded public investment, a pick-up in private-sector construction (largely funded from remittances) and stronger activity in tourism, as well as an expansion of financial intermediation. The improvement in tourism, despite the global economic downturn, is a reflection of improved perceptions of political stability in Comoros, as well as greater efforts to attract tourists from outside Europe. However, it also demonstrates the extent to which Comoros is dependent on external factors, whether global growth patterns or the ability of the diaspora to send funds to their families and friends.

The authorities have long professed the wish to broaden the basis of Comorian growth, but they face a number of obstacles, including geographical isolation, the small size of the domestic market, the absence of minerals and most other high-value raw materials, and a shortage of fertile land. Thus, the IMF's projection that economic growth will rise to an annual average of 4% in the medium term-driven by stronger activity in agriculture, fishing, inter-island transport and tourism-should probably be treated cautiously. Comorian economic expansion has only twice exceeded 4% since 2000, and the country has struggled for decades to achieve sustainable growth. Indeed, the Fund itself concedes that, should international technical assistance not be forthcoming, weak absorption and implementation capacity would undermine medium-term growth prospects.