The IMF built on a number of these themes in its Article IV consultation with the country, details of which were released in early February. While remaining upbeat about macroeconomic fundamentals, the Fund again asserted that progress in fiscal consolidation had been slow. The domestic primary fiscal deficit was 2.6% of GDP in 2009-little changed on the 2008 figure of 2.8%-and it is unlikely that Comoros will achieve the revised programme target of 1.6% of GDP in 2010, given delays in collecting taxes and controlling expenditure, particularly with regard to the public-sector wage bill.

There are, however, some encouraging signs, according to the Fund. For example, the authorities have requested a multi-year technical assistance programme from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to assist with the public enterprise reform programme, and plan to issue calls for private-sector involvement in the management of Comtel and the petroleum importer, Société comorienne des hydrocarbures (SCH). However, there is some scepticism about this timetable-understandably, given experience thus far. Legislation authorising the liberalisation of the telecoms sector and the privatisation of the telecoms operator was passed by parliament in 1997, but it was not until 2004 that Comtel was split from the postal services of the state-owned post and telecommunications company, Société nationale des postes et télécommunications. The search for a strategic foreign investor remains ongoing-a reflection, in part, of fears about political interference in the running of the telecoms service and the small size of the domestic market (which seem to have limited investor interest), but also of delays on the part of policymakers.

It is hardly surprising, therefore, that the Fund cites political resistance to public enterprise reform as one of the main potential risks to a more positive economic outlook for Comoros-along with civil service pressures for higher wages and renewed political instability following the 2010 elections. It emphasises, however, that far-reaching structural reforms are necessary if Comorian growth is to be boosted from current levels of an annual average of just over 1% over 2006-10 (well below the rate of annual population growth, which has averaged 2.3% over this period).

In addition, strengthening the country's fiscal performance is a precondition for reaching completion point under the IMF-World Bank's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative, under which Comoros reached decision point in June 2010 (September 2010, Economic policy). At present Comoros is expected to reach completion point in late 2012. External debt as a percentage of GDP and in net present value terms reached 46.2% in 2009-up from 37.4% the previous year-and remains unsustainable. The hope is that the authorities will increasingly focus on reaching completion point now that the distraction of the Union presidential election has passed; however, political in-fighting between the various islands has had a deleterious effect on economic policymaking for years, and there is little to suggest that there will be any substantial improvement in the short to medium term.